Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in December 2024 is $82,537. This figure is $49 (0.06%) lower than the firm's initial estimate of median household income of $82,586 in November 2024.

Motio Research's estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey, which are conducted in the month following the month in question. The firm adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for December 2024 is 117.1.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through December 2024:

Motio Research also generates household income estimates for the 25th and 75th percentiles in addition to its 50th percentile (median) estimate. The firm reports the households at these positions in the income distribution saw increases over their November levels. Here is what they reported in their 20 January 2025 press release:

The real 25th percentile household income index rose by 0.3% in December, climbing to 117.5 (or $41,742). Despite this gain, the index has slipped 0.1% over the last three months and remains below its pre-Covid peak. On a year-over-year basis, however, lower-quartile incomes are up 0.9%.

At the upper quartile, the household income index increased by 0.2% in December, moving to 120.7 (or $147,356). Over the past three months, the index has risen 0.3%, and it is now 1.0%) above its level of a year ago, maintaining a comfortable margin above its pre-Covid peak.

The three bits of income data together paint a mixed picture for how income changes for households at different parts of the U.S. income spectrum changed in December 2024. We believe that's mainly attributable to noisy variation that arises from the U.S. Census Bureau's sampling of households for its surveys, as other income data sources suggest median household income also increased in December 2024.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations produces estimates of median household income that complement the monthly survey-based estimates produced by Motio Research, which we derive from aggregate income data produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Our initial estimate of median household income in December 2024 based upon our alternate methodology is $82,800, which is $229 (0.3%) higher than our initial November 2024 estimate of $82,571. Our median household income estimate is $263 (0.3%) below Motio Research's December 2024 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through December 2024. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant December 2024 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. For December 2024, this data includes very small downward revisions to previously reported data for October (-0.006%) and November 2024 (-0.064%).

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 31 January 2025. Accessed: 31 January 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 31 January 2025. Accessed: 31 January 2025.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 15 January 2025. Accessed: 15 January 2025.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

If you looked just at the week-over-week change in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), you might think that not much newsworthy happened to influence stock prices during the final trading week of January 2025. The index fell just one percent from its previous week's close, ending at 6,040.53 on Friday, 31 January 2025.

But the same is not true for Nvidia (NASDAQ: , which lost 17.0% of its total market capitalization on Monday, 27 January 2025 after news that China's DeepSeek artificial intelligence application was up and running became public over the weekend. That news shook AI stocks like Nvidia because the new AI system was reported to not require the company's high-end computer chips to be a viable competitor to established AI systems.

As that happened, NVDA stock went from accounting for 6.96% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization to 5.94%. That's the difference between being the biggest publicly-traded company in the index to the third-biggest.

According to S&P's Howard Silverblatt, Nvidia's stock had a 171% gain in 2024, contributing a little over one-fifth to the S&P 500's overall return of 25% for the year by itself. 2025 is shaping up to be a very different year for the AI stocks that powered the index in 2024.

Regardless, the latest update of the alternative futures chart finds the S&P 500's trajectory remained consistent with investors continuing to focus on the distant future quarter of 2025-Q4 through the past week, where the likely timing of a second rate cut by the Fed during 2025 is drawing their forward-looking attention.

Here are the daily highlights of the market moving headlines investors absorbed during the trading week.

Monday, 27 January 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Renewed inflation worries help drive oil price rally
• Oil hits 2-week low as China's DeepSeek AI spurs demand fears
• US new home sales exceed expectations; rising supply curbs house price growth
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China Jan manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracts, hits five-month low
• China's industrial profits fall 3.3% in 2024, third year in the red
• BOJ minions thinking about becoming more vague about their policies:
• BOJ may revert to fuzzy communication after Fed-style clarity on rates
• ECB minions worried Eurozone governments will start telling them how to set monetary policies:
• ECB's Lagarde warns over cost of losing independence
• Nasdaq dropped 3%, S&P fell, while Dow advanced as China's DeepSeek app rattles market
• DeepSeek's 'Sputnik moment' prompts investors to sell big AI players
• China's DeepSeek prompts global selloff in AI-linked stocks
• What is DeepSeek?

Tuesday, 28 January 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices rebound from multi-week lows as investors brace for Trump tariffs
• US house price growth moderates in November
• US labor union membership slips in 2024 to record low
• BOJ mininons thinking about raising Japan's interest rates again in six months:
• BOJ to raise rates again by July, eventually eye hike to 1.5%, says ex-policymaker
• Japan's corporate service inflation hits 2.9%, signals broadening price pressure
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:
• Germany in deep economic crisis, BDI industrial lobby group says
• Germany must address structural weaknesses to keep AAA rating, Scope says
• Nasdaq ends up 2%, S&P gains as tech stocks work to recover from DeepSeek-sparked selloff
• How does Nvidia's $593B market cap wipeout compare to Mag 7 peers?

Wednesday, 29 January 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices slip as US inventories rise; tariff concerns in focus
• Record US goods trade deficit seen cutting into fourth-quarter GDP growth
• Companies eye US expansion to lessen fallout from potential tariffs
• FACTBOX: All of Donald Trump's tariff threats
• Fed minions leave rates unchanged, worry about persistent Bidenflation:
• Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees no hurry to restart cuts
• Fed stands pat, leans hawkish with omission of inflation-progress reference
• Fed chief Powell does not comment on Trump's 'demand' to decrease interest rates
• Fed entering tough period for measuring money market liquidity
• Bank lending prospects among key inputs for policymakers at Fed meeting
• Bigger trouble developing in Canada:
• Bank of Canada cuts growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026
• Bank of Canada cuts rates, says tariff war could be very damaging
• BOJ minions thinking about how they lost their credibility for never-ending stimulus:
• Kuroda's 'bazooka' was losing fans within BOJ by time it was expanded, minutes show
• BOJ board signalled intent to keep hiking rates, December meeting minutes show
• BOJ will keep raising rates if economy on track, deputy governor Himino says
• Bigger trouble developing in the European Union:
• Swedish central bank cuts policy rate eying weak economy
• Nasdaq, S&P, Dow end off session lows as Powell strikes patient tone on interest rates
• Nasdaq leads Wall St higher, tech shares recover from Monday's sell-off

Thursday, 30 January 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil wavers as markets await clarity on Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico
• Weak business spending restrains US economy; domestic demand robust
• Companies race to ship goods to the US ahead of potential tariffs
• Other central banks dialing up rate cuts:
• Bank of England readies rate cut and could hint at more to come
• ECB rate decision: European central bank expected to cut again
• BOJ minions claim they'll keep hiking interest rates in Japan, although they also claim they’ll maintain monetary support:
• BOJ will keep raising rates if economy on track, deputy governor Himino says
• BOJ must maintain monetary support, says governor Ueda
• Core inflation in Japan's capital hits 1-year high, keeps BOJ rate-hike bets alive
• ECB minions cut Eurozone interest rates, think weak Eurozone economy will require more rate cuts:
• ECB cuts rates and governors expect more amid weak growth
• ECB rate decision: European Central Bank cuts again, Lagarde says tariffs will have 'global negative impact'
• Stocks end higher in whipsaw session marked by renewed Trump tariff pledge, tech earnings
• Stocks muted as 'Magnificent Seven' earnings land; gold nears record
• Gold prices hit all-time highs as the U.S. dollar and bond yields sink: SA Charts

Friday, 31 January 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US inflation rises in December; consumer spending accelerates
• Trump is getting the lower interest rates he demanded from everyone but the Fed
• Oil set for weekly decline as Trump tariff threat looms large
• Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Canada & Mexico, 10% On China
• Fed minions say persistent Bidenflation will force them to go slow on rate cuts:
• Traders bet Fed's next rate cut will wait until June
• Bowman: Inflation risks to the upside, further rate cuts should be gradual, cautious
• Fed's Goolsbee comforted by latest inflation data, worried about tariffs
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• Exclusive: Chinese workers in BYD Brazil factory signed contracts with abusive clauses, investigators say
• S&P, Dow, Nasdaq end lower as U.S. preps tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China; indexes rise in January
• S&P 500, Dow ease as White House says Trump to implement tariffs

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to anticipate the Fed will next act to cut interest rates by a quarter point on 18 June (2025-Q2). However, the projected timing of a second rate cut in 2025 has moved up from 10 December to 29 October (2025-Q4).

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's final projection of real GDP growth rate for the now-past quarter of 2024-Q4 was a +3.0% annualized growth estimate, which overshot the BEA's official first estimate of GDP in 2024-Q4 of 2.3% annualized growth. The GDPNow tool's first projection of what real GDP growth will be in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.9%.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of the stock prices of AI companies like NVDA being rattled by news of China's DeepSeek".

The U.S. stock market has been around since the founding of the nation. In the beginning, it wasn't very diversified, but that's changed dramatically over time. In January 2019, Visual Capitalist visualized how much its compensation has changed over the preceding 22 decades. Here's their chart:

Today, if we were to catch the chart up through the end of 2024, it would show a new surge for the Information Tech and Communication sectors of the market, similar to the inflation phase of Dot Com Bubble from 1998 to 2000. As the chart shows, that bubble went on to deflate from 2000 through 2003. At the end of 2024, the new surge in these sectors led by the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks was still growing it its share of the capitalization of the entire U.S. stock market.

If you've ever had to clean out small debris from a yard or sidewalk, chances are you've thought about getting a leaf blower to do the job. Compared to using a rake and/or broom to do the job, leaf blowers can be amazing labor saving devices.

But, because of the way they're designed, they're also bulky items that can be a hassle to store when you're not using them. Wouldn't it be nice to have a compact device that do the job of a leaf blower without taking up all that space?

There's a Kickstarter project whose producer, Magpie Tech, is aiming to put "a storm in your hand" with their AirCannon air blower. Here's their 3-minute Kickstarter video pitch:

The AirCannon caught our attention because although it launched with a modest funding goal of just $3,000, it has already blown past it (pun intended) with pledges exceeding several hundred thousand dollars. That means the project has succeeded and will be produced after its funding drive ends on 3 March 2025.

While the video emphasizes the power of Magpie Tech's air blower, its real selling point is its size. It's much smaller than a typical leaf blower or, for that matter, the kind of shop vacuum that might otherwise be used for some of the applications demonstrated in the video. That in turn makes it possible to be used in more places to do more things than these other tools.

We think that additional potential, combined with the ability to store it away in a much smaller box than the alternatives, explains the runaway support for the Kickstarter project.

Magpie Tech deserves a lot of credit for its design. It takes genuine outside of the box thinking to find a way to put more into a smaller box. And like the proverbial better mousetrap, the world is beating a path to their door.

New home sales were better than expected in December 2024. Here are Reuters' main takeaways from the month's new home sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau:

• "Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased more than expected in December, further evidence that housing market activity regained some momentum at the end of 2024, though rising mortgage rates remain a constraint."
• "New home sales rose 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. The sales pace for November was revised higher to a rate of 674,000 units from the previously reported 664,000 units."
• An estimated 683,000 new homes were sold in 2024, up 2.5% compared to 2023. The median new house price increased 2.1% to $427,000 in December from a year earlier. The pace of increase in home prices is slowing amid rising inventory of new homes.

The U.S. Census Bureau's sales data is preliminary and will be revised three more times during the next three months. Still, that preliminary look along with the revisions to previous months allows us to get a good sense of how the entire U.S. new home market fared through the end of 2024. The three following charts present the trends for the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through the preliminary data for December 2024.

New home sales trending slowly upward:

Average sale prices remain elevated:

Our initial estimate of the time-shifted trailing twelve month average of the total value of new homes sold during December 2024 is $26.96 billion, which falls below November 2024's revised market cap estimate of $27.39 billion. The new home market cap remains more than 10% below its December 2020 level. The last four years have been lackluster ones for new home builders.

We'll take our next look at how affordable the new homes sold in December 2024 were in the near future.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 27 January 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 27 January 2025. 

Image Credit: Construction framer working on new home by Josh Olalde on Unsplash.