Motio Research's initial estimate of U.S. median household income in May 2025 is $83,150. This figure is $230 (0.3%) higher than the firm's initial estimate of median household income of $82,920 in April 2025.

These estimates are based on income data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through its monthly Current Population Survey. This survey is conducted during the week containing the 12th day of the month following the month in which its data applies. The firm then adjusts its monthly estimates to account for the effects of seasonality and inflation in its data, presenting its results in the form of an index with the median household income of January 2010 assigned a value of 100. The initial value of the firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index for May 2025 is 116.7.

The following screenshot of Motio Research's interactive chart shows how this index has changed from January 2010 through May 2025:

The firm's U.S. Real Median Household Income Index last peaked in September 2024 and has been in a slowly falling trend in the months since.

Analyst's Notes

Political Calculations also produces estimates of median household income, which complement Motio Research's survey-based monthly estimates. We derive our estimates using aggregate income data produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Our initial estimate of median household income in May 2025 based upon our alternate methodology is $83,445, which is $172 (or 0.2%) higher than our initial April 2025 estimate of $83,273. Our median household income estimate is $295 (or about 0.4%) higher than Motio Research's May 2025 estimate.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through May 2025. The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant May 2025 U.S. dollars and are not seasonally adjusted, unlike the data used to produce Motio Research's Household Income index:

Political Calculations' monthly median household income estimates are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' monthly aggregate wage and salary estimates for the U.S. population. In May 2025, the BEA's data underwent small revisions, with January (+0.007%) and February (+0.010%) revised upward and March (-0.016%) and April 2025 (-0.055%) revised downward.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 27 June 2025. Accessed: 27 June 2025.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 27 June 2025. Accessed: 27 June 2025.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. Not seasonally adjusted. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 11 June 2025. Accessed: 11 June 2025.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau. We modified the public domain image to make it more generally applicable beyond reporting the median household income from 2022.

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) reached a new record high close on Friday, 27 June 2025, almost four months after it last set a new record. The index closed out the trading week at 6,173.10. The index rose 3.4% higher than it finished the preceding week.

The catalyst of the event was the announcement the U.S. and China had reached a trade deal during the week.

It could have been even bigger, but the news that the U.S. suspended trade deal talks with Canada knocked the index below its intraday trading high.

Even so, the S&P 500 muscled its way to a new record close. The latest update of the alternative futures chart finds that as the 2025-Q2 calendar quarter comes to an end, investors are focusing on the more distant future quarter of 2025-Q4 in setting stock prices, with the S&P 500's trajectory running in the lower portion of the forecast range for this quarter:

While the news of the trade deals capped off the week that was, they were far from the only market-moving headlines for the week. The positive outcome of the U.S.' attack on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities over the preceding weekend and the resulting cease fire between the Israel and Iran got the week off to strong start on the geopolitical front. In between that event and the trade-related news on Friday, much attention was given to what the Federal Reserve will be doing with U.S. interest rates in the second half of 2025. Here are the week's market moving headlines:

Monday, 23 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US attack on Iran adds to economic uncertainty
• Oil settles down 7% after Iran attacks US military base in Qatar, not tankers
• US existing home sales rise in May; mortgage rates still a constraint
• Pressure growing among Fed minions for rate cut:
• Fed's Goolsbee says tariffs have not had expected impact so far
• Fed's Bowman open to cutting rates at July policy meeting
• Fed's Bowman eyes broad set of bank capital reforms
• Fed to no longer police 'reputational risk' in banks
• Fed's Mary Daly says communication should have 'clarity' and 'flexibility'
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
• French private sector activity contracts further in June, PMI shows
• ECB minions say they'll only engage in bond buying in "exceptional" cases, really want a digital Euro:
• ECB's Nagel says bond-buying is only for exceptional cases
• ECB's Lagarde urges EU lawmakers to speed up digital euro law
• Shares advance, oil prices settle sharply lower as markets shrug off Iran conflict
• Wall Street advanced and oil slid after Qatar intercepted an Iranian attack on a U.S. base

Tuesday, 24 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk
• Trump says China can buy Iranian oil, urges it to buy US crude
• Trump says US interest rates should be at least two to three points lower
• Fed minions resisting cutting rates, bitterly cling to belief tariffs will cause inflation:
• Powell repeats rate cuts can wait as Fed studies tariff impacts
• Fed's Williams sees slower growth, higher inflation this year on tariffs, uncertainty
• Fed's Schmid says there is time to study tariff effects before rate cuts
• Fed's Collins says modestly restrictive monetary policy is necessary right now
• Fed's Barr: inflation to rise, may see some persistence
• Fed's Hammack sees no imminent need to cut interest rates
• Fed officials are starting to break rank and join Trump
• Trump Slams "Dumb" Fed Chair As Powell Shrugs Off Dovish Colleagues, Reiterates "No Rush" To Cut
• Exclusive: Fed should wait on rate cuts with price hikes expected, Bostic says
• Tariffs were supposed to drive inflation. Why hasn't that happened?
• Tariffs and taxes are not very inflationary
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• Exclusive: Local Chinese governments promote 'zero-mileage' used car exports, inflating sales
• China can maintain high growth and transition to consumer-led economy, premier Li says
• China issues guidelines on financial support for boosting consumption
• BOJ minion still thinking about hiking Japan's interest rates some more as one inflation measure runs hot:
• Hawkish BOJ policymaker signals chance of 'decisive' rate hikes
• Japan's corporate service inflation hits 3.3% in May
• ECB minions say they would do something if faced with a "material" change in Eurozone inflation expectations:
• ECB would react to 'material' changes in inflation outlook, Lane says
• Wall Street surged on Israel-Iran ceasefire, S&P 500 ends less than 1% away from record close
• Nasdaq 100 notches first record high close since February

Wednesday, 25 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• New home sales fall to seven-month low in May; supply increases
• US new vehicle sales set to rise 2.5% in June, report says
• Oil steadies as investors assess Iran-Israel ceasefire, demand outlook
• Outgoing chief Fed minion clings bitterly to belief tariffs will cause inflation, other minions to change rule to make it easier for government to borrow:
• Powell says Fed needs to manage against risk that tariff inflation proves persistent
• Powell calls reports of lavish Fed building renovations inaccurate
• Fed's Powell cautions against ending Fed power to pay interest on reserves
• Trump says he is considering three or four candidates for next Fed chair
• Fed advances plan to ease bank leverage requirements
• Fed Moves To Relax Key Capital Rule For Big Banks To Support Treasury Markets
• Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying
• Bigger stimulus, US trade deal developing in China:
• China's consumption push will support global growth, Premier Li says
• China takes action on key US fentanyl demands
• Exclusive: US allows ethane to be loaded and shipped to China, but not unloaded, letter says
• Wall Street ended mixed as Iran-Israel ceasefire seems to hold
• Wall Street ends mixed amid cooling Middle East tensions; Powell in focus
• Nvidia hits record high as analyst predicts AI 'Golden Wave'

Thursday, 26 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises as draw in US crude stocks signals firm demand
• US labor market softening as more people remain on unemployment rolls
• US demand for China-made goods ebbs on tariff worries; ocean shipping rates drop
• US durable goods orders soar in May on aircraft
• US goods trade deficit widens in May as exports fall
• US first-quarter GDP revised lower on tepid consumer spending
• Fed minions thinking maybe they should cut US interest rates, but not in July 2025:
• Fed rate cut in July? Inside the US central bank, few takers
• Fed's Kashkari expects two rate cuts this year, with pause possible
• Fed's Kashkari says more clarity needed on tariffs' impact on inflation
• Fed's Collins: not enough data by July to decide on a rate cut
• Fed's Barkin says tariffs will start pushing up inflation
• Market bets on a more dovish Fed as Trump eyes Powell's replacement
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
• US demand for China-made goods ebbs on tariff worries; ocean shipping rates drop
• GE Appliances to spend $490 million reshoring production of washing machines from China
• ECB minions using AI to improve their economic forecasts:
• ECB economists improve GDP forecasting with ChatGPT
• Wall Street ended higher as the S&P 500 came up just shy of its all-time trading high

Friday, 27 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US and China finalize trade deal; White House eyes agreements with 10 key partners, commerce secretary says
• US says deal with Beijing will expedite rare earth exports from China
• Trump cuts off US trade talks with Canada, shattering optimism over tariff deals
• Oil set for steepest weekly decline in two years as risk subsides
• Fed minions plan to spend their summer waiting for data:
• Summertime data to pave way for Fed rate cuts, or further conflict with Trump
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's factory activity expected to shrink for third month amid trade tensions: Reuters poll
• China's May industrial profits slip back into sharp decline
• China's central bank pledges to speed up policy response to economic conditions
• BOJ minions react to inflation data telling them to hike rates again by looking for other data that excuses them from hiking rates:
• Core inflation in Japan's capital slows but stays above BOJ target
• In dovish tilt, BOJ zooms in on obscure underlying inflation trends
• ECB minions told they're chasing the wrong inflation target they claim to be on path to hitting:
• ECB should change inflation target, researchers to tell policymakers
• ECB on path to meet its 2% inflation target, ECB's De Guindos Says
• Wall Street ended in the green as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched a new record close
• S&P 500 record fueled by earnings strength, easing tariff fear
• Nasdaq Composite hits record high; See Nasdaq-100's 10 best and worst YTD performers
• Safe-haven gold falls 2% on easing US-China trade tensions

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will continue holding the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25-4.50% until its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, when it is expected to cut the rate by a quarter percent. The FedWatch Tool now anticipates the Fed will keep cutting the FFR a quarter point at a time twice more after that first cut in 2025, on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 10 December (2025-Q4), before slowing to cut rates at 12-week intervals into mid-2026.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 fell to +2.9% from the +3.4% level recorded a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull celebrating a new record high for the S&P 500, while a Wall Street bear looks worried at a news headline that reads 'GOOD: TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA! BAD: CANADA TRADE TALKS OFF'".

How much will it cost to feed 10 hungry people at a summer cookout in 2025?

The American Farm Bureau Federation went grocery shopping for a summer cookout to find out their menu costs in 2025. They report their volunteer shoppers found the 10 items they went out to buy cost $70.92. The price is down by 30 cents from the $71.22 they reported last year, but is up 19% from what Americans paid for the same items five years earlier.

Most of that increase has taken place since 2021. The following interactive chart shows how much each individual menu item in the Farm Bureau's summer cookout menu cost in each year from 2021 through 2025. If you're accessing this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the chart, which we created using Datawrapper.

This format is nice for seeing the various menu items ranked from year to year, but it isn't great for seeing what trends there may be in the cost for each item from year to year. To better visualize that data, we turned to Microsoft Excel to develop a clustered column chart.

Most items show a surge from 2021 to 2022, coinciding with the high inflation unleashed by former President Biden's policies after March 2021. After 2022 however, most items have either shown flat trends or have even declined by small amounts, with some notable exceptions.

The most notable exceptions involve either beef or dairy products, which is to say they are cow-related [1]. These costs have been rising because of the decline of U.S. cattle and dairy herds because of drought conditions, where cattle ranchers and dairy farmers have had to make hard choices to reduce the number of cows they raise because of the drought's impact on pastureland and shortages of feed, which has inflated the costs to raise both beef and dairy cattle.

Getting back to the Farm Bureau's analysis of 2025's cost of a summer cookout, they conclude:

After years of sharp food inflation, prices for many Fourth of July staples are finally beginning to level out. While some prices, particularly for proteins, will continue to be volatile due to disease pressures and labor costs, others are stabilizing thanks to improving supply chains and easing input prices.

Which is nice after four years of Bidenflation. In the case of beef and dairy products, we anticipate these costs will remain elevated for at least another 2-4 more years given the time it takes to raise new generations of cows to rebuild herds.

[1] We've been waiting years to use that really bad statistical pun.

Image credit: Group of people cooking on a grill outside photo by Mike Kilcoyne on Unsplash

Political Calculations' initial estimate of the total market capitalization of new homes sold in the United States ticked up May 2025. The first estimate of the time-shifted trailing twelve month average of the total value of new homes sold during the month is $28.86 billion.

This figure represents an increase of 2.1% from our revised estimate of $28.26 billion in new homes sales in April 2025. The April 2025 data was revised upward from the initial estimate of $28.22 billion we presented last month.

The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through May 2025. The data for May 2025 indicates the new home market gained from higher sale prices and not a higher number of sales, which is not a good sign for homebuilders.

Falling new home sales trend:

Rising trend for home prices:

Reuters describes how the relative unaffordability of new homes is contributing to homebuilder woes:

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell by the most in nearly three years in May as high mortgage rates and rising economic uncertainty sapped demand, lifting the supply of unsold houses on the market to the highest level since late 2007.

The larger-than-expected decline in sales reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday added to weak homebuilding and tepid sales of previously owned homes last month in suggesting that housing would subtract from gross domestic product in the second quarter after being neutral in the January-March quarter.

Mortgage rates have risen since bottoming in March 2025, contributing to the headwinds of affordability for new home buyers although they remain below the 7% threshold. We'll take a separate look at the relative affordability of new homes nationally within the next two weeks.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 May 2025. 

U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 May 2025. 

Image credit: New Home Construction, Georgia USA by Paul Brennan on PublicDomainPictures.net. Creative Commons Creative Commons - CC0 Public Domain.

The typical house sold in each the fifty states is out of the affordable reach of the typical American household.

That's the main takeaway from Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld's infographic displaying the relative affordability of the median home sold in each state for a household earning the median income in each state. Here's the infographic:

Among all the states in this snapshot, Iowa comes closest to being affordable, while Montana, which has seen home prices rise rapidly in recent years, qualifies as the least affordable:

Iowa ranks as the most affordable state in the nation, with a median listing price of $294,600.

Overall, its home price to income ratio is among the lowest nationally, at 3.0. Despite single family home prices rising by 40% since 2020, prices remain affordable. Not only that, local jurisdictions in the state have issued more than 10,000 new housing permits annually since 2022.

By contrast, states with the lowest affordability scores included Montana, Idaho, and California.

In Montana, home prices have shot up 66% in the past four years—surpassing the 50% national average. As many have flocked to the state, it has drove up prices higher while wage increases have stagnated leading to a growing affordability crisis.

Neufeld is relying on the National Association of Realtors' analysis of home affordability, which is somewhat quirky. Their scale runs from 0 to 2, where a score of 1 represents the situation where a median income earning household can afford to buy the median priced home within the state. Scores below 1, as they are for all states by this measure, indicates the median income earning family cannot afford their state's median priced home. Here's how they describe the findings of their analysis:

We consider two correlated but distinct metrics for homeownership affordability in each state. The first is our REALTORS® Affordability Score, which can be explored here for data at a metro level. We calculate the score at the state level for the entire year of 2024, identifying what percentage of for-sale inventory in each state is affordable to households at varying points along the income distribution in that same state. The benefit of using the REALTORS® Affordability Score is that it measures housing affordability across the income spectrum. The score can range from 0 to 2, and a higher value indicates a more affordable market. Unfortunately, all 50 states and Washington, DC, score lower than 1 in this metric; Iowa comes in on top, at 0.92, and Montana is in last place, at 0.4.

We'll update our picture for the relative affordability of new homes at the national level within the next two weeks, but we anticipate the affordability crisis for new homes will enter its 38th consecutive month. Until then, it's interesting to see that every state is affected by that situation.

Image credit: Dorothy Neufeld. Mapped: U.S. Housing Afforability by State. Visual Capitalist. 29 May 2025.