Christmas will soon be here, you still need to shop for gifts, and your time is running out.

Millions of people face this situation every year. It most often arises because of a classic knowledge problem. You don't know what to get for the people for whom you are shopping. If you did, you would probably already be done with all your shopping at this point of time.

You could perhaps solve this problem a very traditional way, say by giving a classic fruitcake to all the people you have left to shop for on your Christmas shopping list. And depending upon how they feel about receiving a fruitcake, that may help you with the problem of shopping for them next year, especially if they don't like your gift of fruitcake and that leads to them falling out with you.

But odds are that if you're shopping for gifts for them, it's probably because you like them, so why would you even risk that? You need a better solution. So let's turn to statistics.

Or more precisely, let's turn to the results of a poll of Americans run by Statista on what kinds of items are most frequently found on people's wish lists for the gifts they will receive at Christmas. The following interactive chart shows the percentage of Americans whose gift lists included items that fell into the indicated categories.

Knowing the probability the people on your Xmas shopping list will want something that falls in the most popular categories can help you finish up your shopping this year now that there's so little time left. And to help get you over the finish line for this year's gift shopping, we've asked the Inventions in Everything team to supply suggestions of gifts that go along with many of these categories.

Last Minute Xmas Gift Ideas

When the IIE team goes shopping, its normally to find out if its even possible to buy a product based on wild or wacky patented invention we've featured. Or, in the case of the "Outside the Box Thinking" category, we review unusual innovations that do exist and that you can buy. The six items on the IIE team's last minute Xmas list for 2024 falls somewhere between these two categories. Here they are.

Bilz Money Puzzle for Cash, Gift Cards and Tickets

Money and gift cards top the list for gifts Americans say they would prefer to receive in 2024 with more than half of those surveyed saying they want to get these things for Christmas. These are really easy things to get, so giving them as gifts is more about how you package them. That's where the Bilz Money Puzzle for Cash, Gift Cards and Tickets comes into play.

Put the cash or gift card into the puzzle box and your gift recipient can enjoy the challenge of extracting your gift from it. Or should we say that your gift recipient can "enjoy" the challenge of extracting your gift from it. We trust that since you know them, you know what you can get away with. As a plus, because the money puzzle can also hold things like movie or concert tickets, you can also tick the box for the Entertainment/media category with this item.

Moipejo LED Flashlight Gloves

Over a third of Americans say they would like to receive some kind of apparel for Christmas this year, so why not light up their faces by giving them gloves with built in LED lights?

It occurs to us this product might also tick the boxes for Jewelry, which nearly one out of five Americans would like to receive at Christmas. It also ticks the box for Electronics and appliances, which 15% of Americans hope to get in 2024.

The Flying Orb Ball Hover Toy

Speaking of electronics and appliances, which 18% of Americans say they'd like to receive, why not get them a flying ball they can play catch with themselves with?

This is a unique product the IIE team covered earlier this year. It's fundamentally a lightweight miniature drone mounted inside a ball-shaped frame that allows air to pass through so the drone's rotors can work, making it possible for the 'ball' to fly on its own.

Combined with a bit of programming magic, it becomes a ball that lets you play catch with yourself. The concept of Flying Orb Ball Hover Toy, a.k.a. "the boomerang ball" is demonstrated in the following short video:

Versions of this technological wonder are available at retailers like Amazon and Walmart. And like many modern tech-based toys, it has a rechargeable battery.

Funboy Winter Fun Inflatable Toboggan

As long as we're talking about products that are fun, we have to include the inflatable toboggan. Unlike the Flying Orb, it's low tech and it checks the box for Games.

For obvious reasons, this gift is best given to those who live in areas that get snow and that ideally also has hills. Otherwise, you may need to pair this item with Travel, which nearly 19% of Americans say they would like to get for Christmas this year. If you don't, there's nothing stopping your gift recipient from blowing it up anyway and using it as a cushion or pillow, which means it might work for them as Décor. Or not.

Original SipCaddy Shower Wine Holder

We think this item falls into the Personal care products category, but really, it's for that person you know who likes to drink adult beverages and who also likes to bathe or shower.

In truth, this gift is for that special someone who likes these activities so much they want to do them both at the same time. Again, you know who you would give this gift. If you didn't, you might be better off giving them that fruitcake.

Pulidicki Car Cleaning Gel

This last minute gift idea is a total stretch on our part. We looked at the remaining categories we hadn't already covered and tried to identify one product that could tick the boxes on as many of those as we could. This miracle product was the winner.

Pulidicki Car Cleaning Gel is a sticky gel that you can use to remove dirt from the nooks and crannies of your car while you detail it, which clearly falls in the Automotive category. You can also use the gel to clean the gunk off the keyboard for your Computer and hardware, and also your electronics and appliances. Or for that matter, around your light switch plates and baseboards of your home, which makes it a Home improvement product. If their hobby is cleaning, it would count as Hobby supplies.

There you have it. Six last minute gift ideas, links to where you can buy them, and just enough time to order them to get them before December 25 arrives. What can possibly go wrong? Happy Xmas!

Image credit: Cake Decorator Displaying Deluxe Fruitcake on Baking Line photo by JmanningCSB on Wikimedia Commons. Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 Attribution Share-Alike 4.0 International Deed.

It has been over a month since our first look at the expected future quarterly dividends of the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) in 2025. A lot of things have happened since then, most notably the Federal Reserve acted to cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point on 18 December 2024, as was widely expected.

But the Fed also clearly signaled they were looking at proceeding with fewer rate cuts in 2025 than investors expected a month earlier, which was not as widely expected. The S&P 500 fell nearly three percent below the previous day's close as investors absorbed that information, with all of the decline taking place after the Fed's action.

Our latest snapshot for the future of the S&P 500's dividends was snapped on the morning of Wednesday, 18 December 2024, ahead of the Fed's interest rate announcements. Compared to what investors expected a month ago, the outlook for dividends through the next year has dimmed, in part because the prospects for continued interest rate cuts in 2025 has been dimming. The following animated chart shows how the expectations for dividends changed in the month from the morning of 15 November 2024 to the morning of 18 December 2024. If you're reading this article on a site that republishes our RSS news feed, you may need to click through to our site to see the animation.

The 18 December 2025 snapshot of the S&P 500's quarterly dividend futures represents the "before" picture of the outlook for the index' expected dividend payouts in 2025. We'll follow up next year with a snapshot of the outlook for dividends "after" the Fed's action.

Going back to the reaction of investors to the Fed's announcements, we've animated the alternative futures chart for 2024-Q4 that we've been featuring in our regular S&P 500 chaos series. Here, this animated chart shows the changes in the S&P 500 between our most recent snapshot taken on Friday, 13 December 2024 to where the index closed on Wednesday, 18 December 2024:

The trajectory of the S&P 500 over the last few days suggests investors briefly shifted their focus to the more distant quarter of 2025-Q3, coinciding with the expected timing of the Fed's second rate cut in 2025, before turning their full attention back to 2025-Q2 in setting current day stock prices after the Fed's announcement, where whether or not rate cut will take place in this quarter has been at issue in recent weeks.

Given the Federal Reserve's influence over future expectations of interest rate changes, we use the Fed's regularly scheduled announcements of its interest rate policies as calibration points for the dividend futures-based model. The next calibration exercise will be on 29 January 2025.

In November 2024, the number and percentage of younger teens with jobs in the U.S. fell to its lowest level since March 2021.

The number of U.S. teens Age 16 and 17 with jobs in the U.S. workforce declined to a seasonally-adjusted 1,927,000 in November 2024, some 280,000 below the 2,207,000 young teens recorded with jobs six months earlier. Going back to January 2024, the number of Americans Age 16-17 with jobs has fallen by 365,000.

In percentage terms, from January 2024 to November 2024, the share of the Age 16-17 population in the U.S. with jobs has fallen from 24.6% to 20.7%. The U.S. economy has gone from providing work for one in every four young teens to providing jobs for a little over one in every five young teens.

The following pair of charts shows the trends for the seasonally-adjusted teen employment and the teen employment-to-population figures from January 2016 through November 2024.

These charts show that in the last few months, the number of older teens, Americans Age 18 to 19, have seen their seasonally adjusted numbers in the U.S. workforce increase. That raises a good question - are younger teens simply aging into this older demographic?

That's certainly happening, but focusing on that dynamic misses a big underlying change in the composition of the teen workforce. Younger teens with jobs who are aging out of the Age 16-17 group are not being replaced in the ranks of the employed by younger Americans who are aging into the Age 16-17 group. An increasing share of those newer teens joining the population of working age Americans have not been getting hired in 2024.

Since January 2024, the seasonally adjusted number of young teens with jobs has dropped by 16%. What do you call it when such a large percentage of a population finds itself without a money-paying job?

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 6 December 2024.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a store sign that says 'NOW HIRING' and 'AGE 18+ ONLY'".

The probability a U.S. recession will someday be determined to have begun between December 2024 and December 2025 has dropped below 50%.

This assessment is based on the yield curve-based recession forecasting model developed by Jonathan Wright in 2006. Going by this model, the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year dropped below the 50% threshold on 1 December 2024.

The main factor lowering the probability of a recession beginning in this period is the Federal Reserve's interest rate rates during 2024. The Fed's reductions to the Federal Funds Rate has released some of the building recessionary pressure from the Fed having boosted short term interest rates in 2022 and 2023 to combat the Biden-Harris administration's inflation.

With the Federal Funds Rate being reduced, the yields of short-term U.S. Treasuries have followed, further reducing the recession start probability. The following chart tracking the probability of recession since 30 April 1983, the period from July 2024 through mid-September 2025 represents the most likely period in which the NBER will say the U.S. economy peaked before beginning a period of contraction.

The current probability of a recession being officially determined to have begun between 1 November 2024 and 16 December 2025 is 42.9%. The featured chart shows that probability 'pushed out' to the end of the period for which the recession forecast applies.

And now that the Federal Funds Rate is not being held at a fixed level for a sustained period of time, we can resume updating the Recession Probability Track, which provides additional information about the factors that influence Wright's recession forecasting model.

With the Fed set to reduce the Federal Funds Rate by another quarter point on 18 December 2024, we anticipate the Recession Probability Track will continue its downward trajectory in the weeks ahead.

Analyst's Notes

As mentioned, the recession probability presented here is based on the Federal Reserve Board's yield curve-based recession forecasting model, which factors in the one-quarter average spread between the 10-year and 3-month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries and the corresponding one-quarter average level of the Federal Funds Rate. If you'd like to do that math using the latest data available to anticipate where the Recession Probability Track is heading, we have provided a tool to make it easy to do.

We will continue following the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee's meeting schedule in providing updates for the Recession Probability Track until the U.S. Treasury yield curve is no longer inverted and the future recession odds retreat below a 20% threshold. We're following how this forecasting method performs and we anticipate this level may be reached in mid-2025.

Previously on Political Calculations

We started this new recession watch series on 18 October 2022, coinciding with the inversion of the 10-Year and 3-Month constant maturity U.S. Treasuries. Here are all the posts-to-date on that topic in reverse chronological order, including this one....

• U.S. Recession Probability Drops Below 50%
• U.S. Recession Odds Fall with Fed Rate Cut, But Are Still Elevated
• Triple Top Pattern Locking In for U.S. Recession Probability
• Triple Top Developing for U.S. Recession Probability
• U.S. Probability of Recession in Next Twelve Months Hovers Near 70%
• Recession Probability Falls After Hitting Double-Top
• U.S. Recession Probability Nears a Double-Top
• Probability of U.S. Recession Resurges to Nearly 75%
• U.S. Recession Odds Recede to Two Out of Three Chance in 2024
• U.S. Recession Probability Continues Receding on All Hallow's Eve
• U.S. Recession Probability Starts to Recede
• Probability of Recession Starting in Next 12 Months Breaches 80%
• U.S. Recession Probability on Track to Rise Past 80%
• U.S. Recession Probability Reaches 67%
• U.S. Recession Probability Shoots Over 50% on Way to 60%
• Recession Probability Nearing 50%
• Recession Probability Ratchets Up to Better Than 1-in-6
• U.S. Recession Odds Rise Above 1-in-10
• The Return of the Recession Probability Track

Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Federal Reserve official who is trying to use a crystal ball to tell the future".

The Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away.

That's the lesson for investors following the week-to-week action in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX), which fell by over 0.6% to close out the trading week ending on Friday, 13 December 2024 at 6,051.09.

That retreat came after the preceding week's near one-percent gain, which came as expectations there would be three rate cuts in 2025 took hold. But just one week later, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects only two rate cuts in 2025, quarter point reductions that will be announced on 19 March (2025-Q1) and 18 September (2025-Q3). A third rate cut in 2025-Q2 now seems to no longer be in the forecast.

Meanwhile, the CME Group's is giving 96% probability the Fed reduce the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% later this week, on Wednesday, 18 December 2024. Investors will be paying close attention to statements being made by Fed officials, particularly if they give any suggestion as to the prospects of a rate cut in 2025-Q2.

This future quarter matters because investors are closely focusing their forward-looking attention on it as they set current day stock prices. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows where things currently stand:

What happens next depends on the random onset of new information, although in this upcoming week, the new information with the most potential to reshape the future expectations of investors is scheduled. Until then, here are the past week's market moving headlines:

Monday, 9 December 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil rises over 1% on ouster of Syria's Assad, Chinese monetary policy
• US average gasoline price drops below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021
• Fed minions December 2024 rate cut "baked in":
• AMERICAS Fed cut gets baked in, China shifts monetary stance
• Bigger stimulus, trouble developing in China:
• China vows to ramp up policy stimulus to spur growth in 2025
• China's Nov bank lending seen doubling as stimulus kicks in
• China's inflation weakens as new risks cloud horizon
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan, BOJ minions get data pushing them to increase interest rates:
• Japan's bankruptcies set to hit 11-year high in 2024, data shows
• Japan revises Q3 GDP higher, keeps alive BOJ rate-hike expectations
• Eurozone a developing mess:
• To Europe's economic malaise, add a leadership void
• Dow ends lower, S&P 500, Nasdaq pull back from record highs as Nvidia loses ground
• Wall Street closes down as tech stocks fall

Tuesday, 10 December 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil prices rise on China stimulus, possible tight supply in Europe
• US net crude oil imports to fall by 20% in 2025 to lowest since 1971, EIA says
• US importers set to accelerate shipments to record levels on tariff, strike threats
• Brokerages "bake in" December 2024 rate cut by Fed minions:
• Brokerages still expect 25-bps US rate cut in December
• Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps on Dec. 18, pause in January: Reuters poll
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China's exports slow sharply, imports shrink ahead of Trump tariffs
• VIEW China's November export growth slows ahead of Trump tariffs
• China has full confidence in achieving this year's growth target, says Xi
• ECB minions not liking their latest Eurozone problem child:
• The European Central Bank's French Headache
• S&P, Dow, Nasdaq end listless session lower with CPI inflation on deck; Oracle slides
• Wall St indexes fall with inflation data and rates in focus

Wednesday, 11 December 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• US inflation rose to 2.7% in November
• US consumer prices post largest rise in seven months; rents finally slowing
• VIEW In-line Nov US CPI rise leaves door open for Dec ease
• Oil up on demand hopes from China's 'looser' monetary policy
• OPEC makes fifth and biggest cut to 2024 oil demand growth forecast
• Big bank CEOs unusually positive:
• BofA CEO says business outlook is brighter under Trump, expects surge in banking, trading revenue
• BNY CEO optimistic on US economic growth, AI potential
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China ready to go deeper into debt to counter Trump's tariffs
• Exclusive: Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom
• China's yuan plans and a look at inflation
• BOJ minions credibility coming on the line, again:
• Japan's wholesale inflation accelerates, keeps BOJ rate-hike plan in focus
• Explainer: How likely is a Bank of Japan rate hike next week?
• Japan manufacturers' mood turns negative for the first time in 10 months - Reuters poll
• Other central banks taking different tacks on interest rates:
• Bank of England set to stay in central bank slow lane and keep rates on hold
• Bank of Canada likely to reduce interest rate by 50bps
• Brazil's central bank hikes more than expected, signals more tightening ahead
• Driving ability of ECB minions questioned:
• ECB’s rearview mirror ignores economic crash ahead
• Tame US inflation boosts S&P 500, Nasdaq rallies above 20,000
• Stunning rally in Big Tech drives Nasdaq to 20,000

Thursday, 12 December 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• U.S. Producer Prices Rise 0.4% in November, Well Above Expectations
• Eggs boost US producer prices in November, but services inflation slowing
• US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falls to 6.60%
• Oil little changed as IEA surplus forecast offsets rate cut optimism
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
• China pledges more debt, rate cuts as Trump tariff threats loom
• BOJ minions to boldly ignore inflation and keep lower rates going longer:
• Japan Nov inflation likely accelerated, exports up on weak yen: Reuters Poll
• Exclusive: BOJ leaning toward keeping rates steady next week, sources say
• BOJ to skip rate hike in December, majority of economists say
• Other central banks acting to cut rates:
• SNB cuts interest rate 50 basis points, biggest reduction in nearly a decade
• ECB minions deliver expected Eurozone rate cut:
• ECB cuts rates again and keeps door open to further cuts
• ECB cuts interest rates for fourth time this year
• Lagarde comments at ECB press conference
• Handful of ECB policymakers wanted larger cut, worried about tariffs - sources
• Dow, S&P end lower, Nasdaq drops from peak as Adobe tumbles, PPI inflation comes in hot
• Wall Street closes lower as investors assess data after recent gains

Friday, 13 December 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
• Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran
• Fed minions still expected to deliver quarter point rate cut next week:
• US data has Fed striding toward rate cut next week, and tip-toeing into 2025
• Bigger stimulus not measuring up in China:
• China bank lending rises far less than expected, more policy steps needed
• BOJ minions get new reason to not rate hike Japan's intereest rates:
• BOJ's rate hike plans clouded by small firms' wage woes
• ECB minions say they'll think about more rate cuts as bigger trouble develops in the Eurozone:
• ECB governors back more rate cuts if inflation settles at goal
• ECB's Centeno sees further gradual rate easing in coming quarters
• German exports fall more than expected in October
• Euro zone industry did not fall in Oct but recovery not in sight
• Wall Street averages close mixed while Broadcom ends week by surging to $1T market cap
• Broadcom hits trillion-dollar valuation on lofty forecasts for AI demand
• Negative market breadth, hot inflation data snaps S&P 500's three-week win streak
• Only a third of the S&P 500 is outperforming the index

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool’s estimate of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q4 had no updates in the past week and was unchanged at +3.3%.

On an upcoming programming note, the last edition of the S&P 500 chaos series this year will be on Monday, 23 December 2024.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: "An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bear who is taking a present away from a Wall Street bull". The image we got wasn't what we prompted, but we decided we could work with it....